Socionomics vs. Socioeconomics
When writing about socionomics, people sometimes give it the misnomer “socioeconomics.” In case you have trouble keeping the two straight, here are the key differences between the two fields.
Russia-Georgia: A Socionomic Perspective
The Socionomics Institute’s Alan Hall has been awfully busy lately, which is understandable since the forecast he made in November 2007 for the future of Russia called for a declining social mood, a top in the Russian stock market, and conflict along Russia’s borders. In addition to his recent appearance on Bloomberg TV, Hall also sat down with veteran radio journalist Tom Jeffries to share some of the thinking that went into the forecast, as well as what the current conflict with Georgia says about the trajectory of Russian social mood. Listen to the interview now.
The Great Fashion Cover-Up
An article on CNN.com declares that “a shocking trend is gaining ground in teen dressing: modesty.” We here at the Socionomics Institute aren’t shocked in the least. It’s an old Wall Street truism that hemlines rise and fall with the stock market. Why? Because social mood drives fashion trends and the markets. As Pete Kendall noted back in September 2002, “The basic impulse of fashion in a declining phase is to cover up.” Fashion is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to social mood’s impact on pop culture.
Subway System Sends Message About Mood
Our friend Kevin Depew at Minyanville.com has been writing about socionomics for quite some time. His latest piece illustrates the effects of a declining social mood by comparing the 1990's New York City "Crime Crash" with the NYC subway system's current state of disrepair. Read Kevin's latest socionomic insights here.
Socionomics Mailbag
Dr. Dennis Elam's recent blog post suggests that a negative social mood is the driving force behind the popularity accorded Twilight, a young adult novel series that revolves around the relationship between a teen girl and a vampire. Indeed, "magical thinking" is a hallmark of bear markets. Read what Pete Kendall had to say about the shift in pop culture fare in this Socionomics Classic.
A Burger Bankruptcy
Steven Silberberg, PhD brought an article in the New York Times to our attention. It’s a piece about how retailers and restaurant chains are struggling to keep their doors open as the economy heads south. The article notes that Mervyns and the parent company of Bennigans have both filed for bankruptcy. In 1998, Robert Prechter made a forecast for the bankruptcy rate that still resonates a decade later. Read this Socionomics Classic from the Elliott Wave Theorist.
Inside the Latest Issue of Progress in Socionomics
The most recent issue of our newsletter, Progress in Socionomics, is available online. In this issue, you will read about one of the key tenets of Robert Prechter’s socionomic theory. Prechter proposes that investors don’t make rational decisions; they herd. Now, a University of Cambridge professor is putting this theory to the test. Read about it in the latest issue of Progress in Socionomics.
Spinning Out of Control?
"Everything seemingly is spinning out of control," says the Associated Press. The Consumer Confidence Index made another record decline when it recently reached its lowest level in sixteen years. Even Alan Greenspan says that "we are on the brink" of a recession. But, how useful are economic statistics for discerning the social mood of a nation? Take a peek at Robert Prechter’s report, “Predicting Economic and Monetary Trends."
Fractals in the Human Social Experience
In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that aggregate stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. In a series of books and articles published from 1938 to 1946, he described the stock market as a fractal. The stock market is just one area of the human social experience where fractals can be found. Read More.
Robert Prechter Speaks at CFA Conference
Robert Prechter, Executive Director of the Socionomics Institute, presented his socionomic theory of finance at the annual meeting of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of Atlanta on June 18. More information about the conference is available here.
Journal of Behavioral Finance Publishes Paper by Prechter & Parker
The Journal of Behavioral Finance has published a paper by Robert R. Prechter, Jr., Executive Director of the Socionomics Institute, and Wayne D. Parker, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Socionomics Foundation. The paper’s citation is: Prechter, Robert R., Jr., and Wayne D. Parker (2007). “The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective.” Journal of Behavioral Finance, 8(2), pp. 84-108. You may view the abstract and purchase subscriptions to the Journal here. Back issues are also available. We recommend this journal for anyone interested in the psychology of financial markets. For more information, read the press release at the Socionomics Foundation’s website at www.socionomics.org/press/fin_econ.aspx.
Air Force Major Writes About Socionomics
Maj. Tyson Hummel of the Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base has permitted the Socionomics Foundation to post an excerpt from his master's thesis. It is a fascinating application of socionomics for America's economic and military future, titled "Is the Science of Socionomics Able to Portend a Change in the United States’ Economic Might?" Read it at www.socionomics.org/pdf/Hummel_US_Econ.pdf.
Prechter Comments on Fibonacci Study
Robert Prechter, Executive Director of the Socionomics Institute, has commented on a study of Fibonacci retracements and projections in the stock market that was reported recently in The Economist, London's Financial Times and elsewhere. The study, conducted by Roy Batchelor and Richard Ramyar at the Cass Business School in London, offers evidence to support a general conclusion about Fibonacci ratios in the stock market initially mentioned by Frost and Prechter in their 1978 presentation of R.N. Elliott's Wave Principle, a model of aggregate market behavior germane to socionomics. To read Prechter's analysis of this study, click www.socionomics.net/FiboStudy.
Socionomics Foundation Wins National Research Competition
The American Political Science Association recently announced that the Socionomics Foundation's questions about social mood were among those chosen from more than 1,100 proposed queries to be included an upcoming research project funded by the National Science Foundation. To read the press release concerning the award, visit www.socionomics.org/press/ANES.
Making History: An Interview with Film Director David Edmond Moore
David Edmond Moore’s documentary, History's Hidden Engine, breaks new ground in its exploration of socionomic theory. The film, which is freely available for viewing online, features interviews with many of the pioneers in this expanding field. We turned the tables and interviewed David about his thoughts on making the film.
Q: What inspired you to create a documentary on socionomics?
A: I first became interested in socionomics after reading Bob Prechter's report, "Popular Culture and The Stock Market." It was the first time I had heard of the Wave Principle. I found it remarkable that the stock market correlated with trends in fashion, movies and music. I wasn't really a finance guy. I was just out of school, and pop culture was what interested me. What drove it home for me was that after reading the report I noticed a correlation between the crash in 1987 and a change in the music of U2 and R.E.M. Both groups went from being just rock bands to releasing two very political albums in 87. Later still, after the market recovered from the 87 crash and we extended the massive bull market through the late 80s and 90s, U2 and R.E.M. released "happy" albums. U2 went so far as to call their album Pop. You can't say it any clearer.
Continue reading the interview.
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