|By Euan Wilson | Excerpted from the May 2009 Socionomist
Originally published under the title, “Sky High? Not in Saudi Arabia or Dubai: Skyscrapers”
[Ed: In this brief article, socionomist Euan Wilson offers powerful evidence of the efficacy of the so-called Skyscraper Index, which states that developers tend to announce massive construction projects at positive social mood peaks and delay or cancel these same projects during the subsequent negative mood phase.
Here is an excerpt of Wilson’s May 2009 article.]
The advance in the stock market from 2002 to 2007 brought fresh announcements of big construction projects around the world. But since the massive bear market resumed in 2007, global social mood has undergone the biggest swing from positive to negative in generations, and those same projects are now experiencing massive cutbacks, delays, controversy and outright cancellation. Ventures in Saudi Arabia and Dubai provide an excellent case study.
The developers of Saudi Arabia’s Mile High Tower have put their project on hold indefinitely. The December 2008 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast predicted that the Mile High would never get beyond the blueprint phase.
Mile High’s proposed rival, the Nakheel Tower of Dubai, also appears unlikely to get off the ground. In January, its government-backed construction firm announced the project’s shelving for at least one year. While Nakheel assures the press that the project will restart, it offers no reason for the delay, and we doubt the tower will ever see completion. That the company still positions the tower as a future possibility fits our characterization of a bear market as a Slope of Hope. It also confirms that full capitulation to the bearish mood trend still lies ahead…
As you read Wilson’s article, bear in mind that it first published in 2009 and that positive mood has surged ever since.
Want more content like this?
The Socionomist is the only monthly publication that offers you practical insights on the relationship between social mood, financial markets and cultural trends. Each issue warns you about big societal changes before they can harm you and reveals breakthrough opportunities emerging from trends in society.
(Socionomics Members: Log in for the full article and your complete, exclusive archive.)
Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help
readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur
throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics
Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief;
Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman
and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall,
For subscription matters, contact Customer Care: Call 770-536-0309 (internationally) or 800-336-1618 (within the U.S.). Or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Chuck Thompson via email@example.com. Mailing address: P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, Georgia, 30503, U.S.A. Phone 770-536-0309. Please consult the submission guidelines located at http://www.socionomics.net/PDF/Socionomist_Submission_Guidelines.pdf.
For our latest offerings: Visit our website, www.socionomics.net, listing BOOKS, DVDs and more.
Correspondence is welcome, but volume of mail often precludes a reply. Whether it is a general inquiry, socionomics commentary or a research idea, you can email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Most economists, historians and sociologists
presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes
the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The
events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events,
macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally
occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not
randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically
predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available
meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social
mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different
in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic
choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic
theory, see (1) the text, The
Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter;
(2) the introductory documentary History's
Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward
a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before
the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his
socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net.
At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about
a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller
or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
All contents copyright © 2021 Socionomics Institute. All rights reserved. Feel free to quote, cite or review, giving full credit. Typos and other such errors may be corrected after initial posting.