Social Mood Conference | Socionomics Foundation
By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the November 2009 Socionomist

Originally published under the title, “A Socionomic Study of Eugenics”


[Ed: In this provocative article, Alan Hall explains that declines in social mood produce expressions of dehumanization and social control. The history of eugenics-the theory that it is possible to improve human hereditary qualities by controlling whom may propagate – provides an unfortunate example. In fact, Hall shows, pro-eugenics ideas may be resurfacing even now as social mood waxes negative. Here is an excerpt of his November 2009 article.]

Fourth Wave Social Themes Foreshadow Those of the Next Bear Market
Figure 1 plots major eugenics trends since 1860 on a chart of inflation-adjusted U.S. stock prices. As the chart shows, bear markets and eugenics activities tend to wax together.

Figure 1

Look closely at waves [4], IV, and (IV), which occurred between the late 1800s and 1932. Each of these fourth waves was one degree larger than the one before it. Each produced a more intense expression of eugenics, culminating with the Nazi genocides in Europe during World War II.

Robert Prechter’s 1999 book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (HSB), describes how the fourth wave in a five-wave advance can anticipate social trends:

The initial deterioration in the stock market during the fourth wave sets the stage for the ultimate reversal (see “Wave Personality” in Elliott Wave Principle). Apparently, this is true across all manifestations of social mood, not just the stock market.

The September 2001 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist offers more detail about the forecasting value of fourth waves:

Negative social themes due to appear in any approaching bear market first express themselves in milder form in the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree….The negative themes in “wave four” within the “fives waves up” presage those that will dominate, more dramatically and on a much bigger scale, in the ensuing “three waves down.”

Grand Supercycle wave [IV] started in 2000. The “preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree,” Supercycle wave (IV), is the “milder form” expression of the negative social themes of wave [IV]. This suggests that people will again leverage popular ideology to justify even larger xenophobic policies.

Eugenics Redux?
…But pro-eugenic ideas also are resurfacing. In November 2008, the Netherlands considered a bill that would have forced two years of contraception on “unfit mothers” and placed babies they conceived in that period in state care. The bill failed.  In September 2009, Poland passed a law mandating castration of convicted pedophiles. It may prove to be as predictive as Michigan’s failed 1897 legislative proposal to castrate certain criminals. A New Zealand politician recently proposed to solve child abuse by “paying the ‘appalling underclass’ not to breed” (, 10/30/2009). Such proposals often appear first on the radical fringe; a sustained social-mood decline then pulls them into the mainstream.


In the remainder of this eight-page article, author Alan Hall:

  • Provides an overview of the history of eugenics, including major eugenics events
  • Analyzes racial and ethnic prejudice as the foundation of eugenics
  • And describes the potential resurgence of eugenics expressions in the environmentalism movement, genetic science, and the elderly healthcare dilemma

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Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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