 Originally published in the March 2011 Socionomist |
After 50 years of making big buys, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation is planning its biggest acquisition ever—a deal worth $12.5 billion.
The significance of Murdoch’s latest deal, plus key acquisitions he has made since the 1950s, are highlighted by Elliott Wave International’s Mark Galasiewski in the March 2011 issue of The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast. Galasiewski notes that almost every one of Murdoch’s past major purchases has marked an intermediate-term top not only in News Corporation’s stock price but also in Australia’s stock market. Further, these peaks have generally coincided with tops in global stock markets. If precedent holds, and if Murdoch seals his latest deal, Galasiewski predicts, “We may be looking at another peak in social optimism, which would therefore signal that most of the gains in the rally since the 2009 low have been had.”■
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Most economists, historians and sociologists
presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes
the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The
events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events,
macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally
occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not
randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically
predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available
meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social
mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different
in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic
choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic
theory, see (1) the text, The
Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter;
(2) the introductory documentary History's
Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward
a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before
the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his
socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net.
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The Socionomist enables you to see trend-shaping waves of social mood, as reflected by the stock market — and capitalize on them. The June issue looks at phases of social mood and features a “Research Roundup,” which highlights five academic studies that shine a light on important aspects of socionomic theory. Mood Riffs topics include “quiet luxury,” loneliness, the Writers Guild strike and efforts by countries to trade in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Read the June issue when you become a Socionomics Premier Member.
