Social Mood Conference | Socionomics Foundation
By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the March 2013 and April 2013 Socionomist

Originally published under the title “The Human Species Stands at a Critical Juncture”

[Ed: Get ready for a sharp reversal in human vitality. Evidence continues to mount that society has passed a historic pinnacle of health. In this gripping, two-part article, Alan Hall assesses the current, most imminent threats to society’s vitality produced by the multi-decade trend toward negative social mood.]

I. It’s Still a Bear Market
We can discern, looking as far back as history provides data, that social mood has influenced the health of societies.

We first showed this relationship in our disease/epidemic study in May and June 2009. We updated our observations in December 2011, when we presented yet more evidence linking long term negative social mood trends to chronic stress and rising susceptibility. Today, judging by the four year rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other social expressions of ebullience, social mood has trended strongly positive since 2009. But the multi-decade trend (what EWI calls the Grand Supercycle degree) remains deeply negative. …

In the 1990s, EWI theorized that the ebb and flow of social mood influences broad public health.  Robert Prechter’s book At the Crest of the Tidal Wave (1995) observed:

For whatever reason, perhaps because of society’s negative emotional state and, as a result, its weakened physical state, communicable disease sometimes plays a prominent role in major corrective periods, with some Cycle and Supercycle degree corrections containing epidemics and larger ones pandemics.

And later, in his July 1996 Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter wrote:

While many anticipate the complete eradication of some diseases like leprosy and polio, several new scourges are emerging. These virulent microbes cause tuberculosis, malaria, cholera and pneumonia, and conventional antibiotics are powerless against them. In fact, drug-resistant bacteria now account for 60% of the hospital-acquired infections in the US. In total, approximately 30 new diseases stalking the world today have brought us “to the brink of a global crisis in infectious diseases,” says a World Health Organization report. In light of this gigantic threat, consider that the latest “health care” bill passed by Congress criminalizes with draconian property seizures and prison sentences even minor paperwork infractions by doctors. This move accelerates the three-decade headlong rush by the US government to destroy the medical profession and force good doctors (and potential doctors) into other businesses.

We are now five decades into the government induced destruction of medical services. Georgia, Florida, California and other states face increasingly critical doctor shortages. “Doctor Shortage Could Cause Health Care Crash,” wrote ABC News in November 2012, even as it quoted a health policy researcher saying, “government should take steps— and quickly—to address the problem before it gets out of hand.”

It’s already out of hand. The number of medical graduates choosing a career in family medicine dropped 27% from 2002-2007. A doctor at the Ohio State John Glenn Institute of Public Service and Policy says this bodes ill for the population at large. “Who is going to care for these people?” he asks. The new national Affordable Care Act is going to make it worse, not better, he says. “We are going to have problems just like Massachusetts [which enacted its statewide health care insurance reform law in 2006. Massachusetts is] struggling with access problems; it takes one year to get into a primary care physician. Coverage does not equal access.” The Tallahassee Sun Sentinel summed it up last month: “Brace yourself for longer lines at the doctor’s office.”1

Another social mood cause may be government’s tendency to award impossible benefits to people at social-mood peaks. Witness Medicare in 1965 and “Obamacare” in 2012, near Cycle-degree peaks in the stock market. As Chapter 3 of Prechter’s Perspective (1996) put it, “such social intentions are manifestations of an extreme attitude about ‘entitlements’ to comfort and support that may not have existed in history except perhaps in the late Roman Empire.”


In this two-part, twelve-page report, author Alan Hall discusses several more health threats that we are facing during the current large-degree social mood decline, such as superbugs, antibiotic resistance and food scares. He also explains the effect of declining social mood on worldwide population growth and why public health care systems are failing at critical, basic tasks.

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Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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