By Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson | Excerpted from the March 2015 Socionomist
It’s official: Hillary Clinton has launched her 2016 presidential campaign. Does social mood shed light on her chances?
Here, socionomists Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson explain that a negative social mood trend could bode well for Clinton, yet may leave her vulnerable to scandal.
Socionomists have speculated that negative social mood trends play to Hillary Clinton’s political strengths. In the March 2006 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter noted that Clinton’s anger should sell in a bear market. Regarding her chances of becoming president in 2008, Prechter said, “If stocks turn down hard, anger will be the perfect campaign strategy, and Hillary’s natural disposition will be an asset.”
Clinton was a major contender for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, but the negative social mood trend did an abrupt about-face during the Democratic primaries and tilted the scales toward Barack Obama, as Prechter observed in the June 2008 Theorist:
Stock prices, after a moderate slide from October 2007 to January 2008, rose throughout the rest of the Democratic party’s primary voting process. As a result, the angrier candidate became less attractive, although just barely, than the blander candidate of “hope.”
Clinton’s gender may be an asset in a bear market, too. In “Popular Culture and the Stock Market” (1985), Prechter noted that feminism gains power during times of negatively trending social mood. In the book Prechter’s Perspective (2004), he said, “women gain dominance during bear market periods,” and Mark Galasiewski observed in the April 2007 Theorist that the “first woman in every major US political office made her breakthrough near the end of a major bear market.”
But Clinton’s rise to the top of a presidential ticket in the 2016 race will not be without obstacles, even if mood becomes negative. Hillary’s Achilles heel in a negative social mood trend could be her vulnerability to scandal. During her husband’s tenure as president, the positive mood of the 1990s allowed him to weather a series of scandals that threatened to destroy his political career. …
Read the remainder of the article to learn how today’s positive social mood is helping the Clintons stay afloat despite a wave of scandalous allegations.
(Bonus: In other news, Disney’s live-action remake of Cinderella profits from the positive social mood in the US. Ebola resurges in West Africa – could measles be next? These trends show the ubiquitous influence of social mood on varieties of human activity.)
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