By Chuck Thompson | Excerpted from the September 2015 Socionomist
Global cyber wars. Independence referendums. Border restrictions. Nuclear weapons. Impeachments. Fringe candidates. These topics have become daily fixtures in the news.
In this timely article, socionomist Chuck Thompson explains how all these events express a global shift toward negative social mood.
Read an excerpt of the September 2015 article below.
Mood Trending Negatively but Still Relatively Elevated in the US, For Now
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been trending net down since May. Elliott Wave International’s analysis indicates that it is likely still early in the renewed negative mood trend, so social manifestations borne of the previous long-term positive mood trend remain at the fore. If mood continues to trend negatively, though, these manifestations should give way to a greater quantity and intensity of social expressions that align with the traits listed on the right side of Table 1, adapted from Chapter 14 of Robert Prechter’s The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior.
Cyber Threats Loom, But US Response Has Been Mild
In a speech at Fort Meade, Maryland, President Obama voiced frustration about the growing number of cyberattacks on the US. He said that Russia, China and Iran have all become adept at such attacks, and that “offense is moving a lot faster than defense.”
The US has followed a low-key approach to cyberattacks. And David Rothkopf, editor of the FP Group, which publishes Foreign Policy Magazine, says other nations are taking advantage of US complacency:
The Chinese have discovered they can launch cyberattacks against us and that our officials seek to downplay them or offer up limp, ineffective responses, like indicting people behind them who will never ever see the inside of a U.S. court.
Yet, Obama did issue a warning at Fort Meade, saying, “There comes a point at which we consider this a core national security threat [and] we can choose to make this an area of competition, which I guarantee you we’ll win if we have to.”
The US and China announced that they had reached a cybercrime truce with regard to economic espionage in a joint press conference in late September. The prospects for maintaining the truce are slim if mood continues to trend negatively in both countries. In the February 2012 issue, Alan Hall warned about the potential for intensifying cyber war during a negative mood trend:
As animosity rises and military budgets fall, expect even more belligerence-on-the-cheap. Verbal threats, espionage, trade wars, financial conflicts, internal terrorism, cyberattacks, authoritarian clashes, border conflicts, drone attacks and anti-satellite attacks should all increase.
…Mood Grows Darker Elsewhere
The mood trend is far more negative in other parts of world. The character of unfolding events in Eastern Europe, Russia, Brazil and beyond provide a flavor of what may be on the menu throughout the West when mood becomes predominantly negative.
Negative Mood Dogs Brazil’s President
The political career of Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, is a textbook study of the political and economic consequences of negative mood on formerly adored public figures. Brazil’s Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is down 33% compared to October 2010, when Rousseff was elected to her first term as president.
Her opponents have filed a petition for her impeachment with Brazil’s Congress. Helio Bicudo, a founder of her own Worker’s Party, wrote the petition. Bicudo was involved in Brazil’s only successful impeachment movement, which resulted in the removal of Fernando Collor from the presidency in 1992.
The impeachment petition is just one of many issues facing Rousseff. These include allegations of $800 million in bribes paid to government officials for contracts with state-controlled oil company Petrobras, whose board Rousseff chaired.
In addition, a government watchdog is looking into allegations that accounts were altered during Rousseff’s tenure to create a more politically acceptable national budget deficit. Brazil’s unemployment rate climbed to a seven-year high of 7.5% in July. The country also faces a pension crisis, and many economists say Brazil’s problems have their roots in policy changes that originated with Rousseff.
In a recent poll, 71% of voters rated Rousseff’s performance as “bad or terrible” while only 8% judged it “good or excellent.” That makes Rousseff the country’s most unpopular democratically elected president since 1985, when a military dictatorship ended. …
Continue reading this 6-page article to discover how negative social mood is driving a series of dark events across the globe, from the migrant and refugee crisis in Eastern Europe, to Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war, to North Korea’s “rocket launches” – and more!
Want more content like this?
The Socionomist is the only monthly publication that offers you practical insights on the relationship between social mood, financial markets and cultural trends. Each issue warns you about big societal changes before they can harm you and reveals breakthrough opportunities emerging from trends in society. Become a socionomics member today and get instant access to The Socionomist.
(Socionomics Members: Log in for the full article and your complete, exclusive archive.)