By Chuck Thompson | Excerpted from the September 2017 Socionomist
The July 2016 issue of The Socionomist noted that socionomic theory “topples the entrenched belief that politicians and leaders can control their own political destinies.” Instead, social mood regulates many political outcomes and influences the public’s perception of leaders. Thus, an incumbent candidate’s victory or loss may not reflect his or her level of competence. In Germany’s upcoming federal election, Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking another term as Germany’s leader. How may the current social mood influence her chances for victory? An article by Chuck Thompson in the September 2017 issue of The Socionomist provides some clues. Following are excerpts from that article.
In the July 2013 issue, we noted that politicians
… steer their careers only partially. Often, a more important driver is social mood. Changes in social mood can propel public figures from acclaim to ignominy, and vice-versa, from abhorrence to adoration. …
Angela Merkel will be vying for a fourth term as chancellor of Germany in elections on September 24. For now, social mood in Germany appears to favor Merkel’s re-election bid. …
Our Elections Studies
The Institute’s 2012 U.S. presidential elections paper reported a connection between the outcomes of U.S. presidents’ re-election bids and the U.S. stock market’s performance during the three years prior to the elections. In the July 2012 issue, we used a similar method to examine elections in Europe, where numerous heads of state had been swept from office that year. The losers included both liberals and conservatives. The article showed compelling evidence that voters in Europe, like those in the U.S., appear to
… unconsciously credit or blame the national leader for their collective mood, as reflected by their country’s stock market. …
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