Social Mood Conference | Socionomics Foundation

Discover the Elliott Wave Principle’s answer in this powerful excerpt from the just-released book, Socionomic Causality in Politics.

Chapter 26

By Alan Hall

Negative mood trends unfold in down-up-down (A-B-C) Elliott wave patterns. Within such patterns, the first and second downtrends (A and C) produce very different types of social actions. Second declines tend to coincide with major wars. That is not the case with first declines, when wars are typically absent or comparatively mild.

In Chapter 16 of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Robert Prechter hypothesized why this is the case:

Apparently society handles the first retrenchment in social mood, no matter how severe. “A” waves surprise optimistic people, who are unprepared and unwilling to wage war. It is the second drop that makes a sufficient number of increasingly stressed people angry enough to attack others militarily.

As you can see in Figure 1, none of the initial declines illustrated produced major wars.

First declines, however, still bring plenty of risks. The initial declines of 1720-1723, 1835-1842 and 1930-1932, which kicked off the largest-degree negative mood trends of the past three centuries, all began with intense deflation. The initial decline of 2000-2003 featured the 9/11 attacks and led to the relatively mild Iraq War. The initial wave down in the next period of negative social mood should likewise spark deflation and conflict, although not global war.

Figure 1



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