June 4, 2019
Last year, automakers sold 2 million passenger electric vehicles (EVs)—just 2% of global auto sales. But optimistic forecasters look for sales of EVs to outnumber those of gasoline-powered cars in only two decades.
Predictions for electric vehicle demand vary widely. Bloomberg New Energy Finance says that by 2040, total EV stock will reach 548 million vehicles. ExxonMobil predicts only 162 million.
Meanwhile, Chinese EV startup NIO has indefinitely delayed its upcoming electric sedan. And Digital Trends notes that while Tesla “deserves total credit for making EVs a part of the discussion when it comes to the future of the automobile,” the cutting-edge automaker is “doomed.”
MIT professor David Keith says the worst outcome for EVs is that their appeal won’t spread fast enough beyond “techies and greenies” to sustain the growth of the early market.
With experts offering different takes on the future of electric vehicles, it’s important to remember that forecasts are just that: forecasts.
To learn more about what fuels technology read “Social Mood Influences Technological Development.”
If you look closely, you can see patterns in social mood that help you predict social trends. Learn more with the Socionomics Premier Membership.
The Socionomist enables you to see trend-shaping waves of social mood, as reflected by the stock market — and capitalize on them. The June issue looks at phases of social mood and features a “Research Roundup,” which highlights five academic studies that shine a light on important aspects of socionomic theory. Mood Riffs topics include “quiet luxury,” loneliness, the Writers Guild strike and efforts by countries to trade in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Read the June issue when you become a Socionomics Premier Member.
