April 5, 2022
As France’s presidential election nears, far-right leader Marine Le Pen is closing the gap on incumbent Emmanuel Macron, according to two recent polls. France 24 said the polls suggest Macron’s margin of victory over Le Pen is “narrowing sharply.” Aides to Macron say his support rose strongly after Russia invaded Ukraine. They argue that the recent loss of support is only a simple correction, but Le Pen proclaimed, “I have never been so close to victory.” Meanwhile, one-quarter to one-third of French voters are believed to be undecided about who to select as the country’s next president. Research by socionomists on elections in the U.S. shows that an incumbent president’s chances of being re-elected are governed by social mood. To learn more read, “How to Forecast an Election More Accurately Without Polling a Single Person.”
If you look closely, you can see patterns in social mood that help you predict social trends. Learn more with the Socionomics Premier Membership.