Want to Make Data-Driven Business Decisions? The Data Ain’t the Problem

July 6, 2022
  

By Matt Lampert, Socionomics Institute

I got a kick out of a paragraph in a recent Wall Street Journal (5/18/22) profile of new Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav. The WSJ reported,

Mr. Zaslav wants to use more statistics and research to determine what shows and movies the company should make, he said in a memo to employees on Monday. “As we build this new company,” he wrote, “we need to be guided by data and insights to understand what’s working and what’s not.”

If you’re thinking “socionomics to the rescue,” then we’re on the same page. Socionomists have written at length about how trends in social mood shape the public’s preferences in film and television entertainment. Check out Chapter 15 in The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior for a primer and Part II of Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture for dessert.

Want to know when to release your cutting edge, shock-and-awe, blood and guts horror masterpiece? We got you covered. What about your squeaky-clean, sing-songy, family-friendly musical? Give us a shout. And that prestige picture by that director people used to love but who hasn’t had a hit since 1982? We just might be able to help you time that one as well. And so on.

But there’s more to this story. If there’s one business that has — for literally a century — kept immaculate data on the gross receipts generated by just about every product it has ever produced, it’s the movie industry. Even in the 1920s, Variety magazine published box office figures.

All movie studios use data to make decisions and have done so for some time. Warner Bros. is no stranger to the data game. In fact, in January 2020 it announced a deal with a tech firm to use artificial intelligence software to crunch numbers and help the studio to decide which movies to make. Yet even with an AI program that, according to the Hollywood Reporter, employs “comprehensive data and predictive analytics” to “assess the value of a star in any territory and how much a film is expected to make in theaters and on other ancillary streams,” the studio finds itself wanting more data to bolster its analytical arsenal.

That got me thinking: getting the data ain’t the problem. Warner Bros. has it, more than it could possibly make sense of. The problem is knowing how to use it.

In the Internet Age, companies in every industry are awash in data like never before. No doubt some of it is useful. But how do you distinguish between what’s useful and what isn’t? Think about any crucial decision you’ve ever made. How many pieces of information truly swung the decision for you? I’d be surprised if it was more than five. It may have been just one or two. Yet you probably had a veritable mound of information to consider.

Having a lot of information is good for two things:

• Increasing the chance that you’ll base your decision on something that doesn’t matter.
• Providing your brain with a basis to extrapolate a trend.

In the film industry, studios have learned much about which types of movies, which stars, which financing and distribution models, and so on have thrived in a large-degree positive social mood trend. In the thick of a large-degree negative social mood trend, however, most of that information will become useless aside from serving as an example of what not to do.

Absent a socionomic perspective, the only way for a studio to figure that out is to conduct business the positive-mood way, endure a series of expensive flops after mood turns negative, see another studio or filmmaker try something different that gains some traction with the public, and then emulate it. That’s a long and costly process, and it won’t be unique to the film business. Industries the world over will learn similar lessons.

One edge a socionomist has is an ability to estimate shifts in the public’s preferences before the public reveals those new preferences in the marketplace. If you identify a significant shift toward negative social mood in real time, for example, you don’t have to wait for another studio to produce a horror movie hit to know that horror movies are back en vogue. You have a chance to be the studio that releases the horror movie hit that your competitors then rush to copy.

The movie business is just one example of where this edge comes into play. Of course, a socionomic decision-maker won’t get every decision right — no one can. But the socionomic entrepreneur at least has a shot to deliver to the public what the public wants, before the public — or competitors — even knows it wants it.

Want to make data-driven socionomic business decisions? Know your industry, master the theory and keep a stock index chart handy.

Master the theory. Know your business. Keep a stock index chart handy.

That’s the formula for a socionomically superpowered entrepreneur. You already know your business, and you can pull up a stock index chart with a few taps or clicks of a mouse. All you need now is to master socionomic theory.

Sound daunting?

What if you could have the best, most powerful and most up to date socionomics tools and research in one convenient location, available to you at an instant. You can, for one affordable rate, when you become a Socionomics Premier Member.

HOW IT WORKS

Socionomics starts with a simple observation: How people FEEL influences how they will BEHAVE.

At the Socionomics Institute, we look at how society is feeling today — so you can anticipate how society will behave tomorrow. We track social mood in real time across the globe. You’ll see how changes in social mood shift everything from the songs people want to hear to the leaders they elect; from people’s desire for peace to their hunger for scandals.

This is a rare, awe-inspiring insight. It’s what enables the Institute to help our members stay ahead of new trends that surprise almost everyone else.

Your Socionomics Premier Membership gives you this unrivaled perspective and puts you miles ahead of the herd.
 

YOUR PATH TO UNLEASHING SOCIONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE

Your Membership Resources Fall Into Three Categories:

	THE SOCIONOMIST Magazine 12 issues per year, plus the entire archive ($1200 total value) The Socionomist is dedicated to helping readers capitalize on social mood. Each month, our analysts show you how social mood is driving trends around the world. They identify upcoming turns and forecast bold new changes that no one else sees coming. Politics, popular culture, disease, family, religion, industry – MAGAZINE ARCHIVE Value: $900 You get open access to the entire Socionomist archive (100+ issues!) they are all powered by social mood; The Socionomist shows you how so you can prepare for what’s ahead. No thinking person should be without this magazine. One-year subscription value: $300.
	THE SOCIONOMICS BOOK SERIES 5 Online Books ($197 total value) With hundreds of charts and illustrations, this series introduces socionomics and demonstrates how social mood motivates social events, not the other way around: The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999) – Learn how history unfolds in form-driven fractal waves. Value: $39. Pioneering Studies in Socionomics (2003) – Read a rich collection of case studies from 20+ years of research. Value: $39. The Socionomic Theory of Finance (2016) – How macroeconomics and finance really work – It’s very different from what you learned in school! Value: $79. Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture (2017) – Discover how you can anticipate and capitalize on trends in pop culture and broader society. #1 Amazon social theory bestseller! Value: $35. Socionomic Causality in Politics (2017) – Grasp political trends in a new way by seeing exactly what propels them. Value: $35.
	THE KITCHEN SINK ($299+ annual value) You get a well-organized, full library of exclusive content. Plus, you get every new piece of content we release while you’re a member, including any book and DVD in digital format, as soon as it’s released; a virtual seat at any online event we host; a copy of any academic paper we release; and access to any available recording of speeches we make. Includes our Essential Mood Conference showcasing the most useful talk from the first seven years of the Institute’s annual conference.

Tags Elliott Waves Social Mood Stock Market