[Article] Forecasting: Predicting Tomorrow Based on Today
“The economy is on the mend,” say experts, but their only rationale is that it was on the mend last year. What’s the flaw in this thinking?
“The economy is on the mend,” say experts, but their only rationale is that it was on the mend last year. What’s the flaw in this thinking?
A series of “off-the-cuff” expectations of what’s to come in financial markets, politics, international trade, the climate change movement, art, spending habits, secessionism and more.
Discover how socionomics anticipated an increase in these anti-authoritarian rebellions around the globe.
Guess what economic measure rose 800% since 1997? Not home prices. Not medical costs. Student loans! In fact, education debt now almost equals U.S. defense spending.
In Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan and Egypt, thousands of Islamist and secular protesters thronged the streets demanding the removal of their corrupt authoritarian leaders. Our authoritarianism study in the April 2010 issue of The Socionomist anticipated such conflict
Recently published and preliminary work from researchers at four universities indicate that trends in social mood as displayed in social media predict price moves in the stock market. The studies provide important further evidence of the socionomic hypothesis: that changes in states of unconscious social mood precede—because they motivate—changes in the stock market and other social events.
A carnival singer finished third in Haiti’s Nov. 28 Presidential election. Consequently, protesters clashed with U.N. peacekeepers — claiming his campaign was the victim of election fraud and voter intimidation. Discover what’s behind the rise in support of “joke” candidates.
The statistics are sobering: 15,000 dead in 2010 (30,000 in four years); 230,000 Juarez Drug War refugees; 6,000 Juarez businesses closed. Find out what the Institute sees next for Mexico’s drug war — and what this portends for marijuana legalization.
In this must-read follow-up to Euan Wilson’s cartoons study, you’ll discover how social mood drives the nature of cartoon violence, color palette, animation styles and themes.
Alan Hall considers exactly how this painter and his work achieved larger-than-life popularity.