Economy

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  [Article] ‘Financial Repression’ is Reemerging

  The potential for decentralized, uncontrollable information systems and economies represents a huge threat to governments. As the largest debt bubble in modern history unwinds, socionomists expect to see many and varied attempts to dial up the repression … and an intensification of the inevitable backlash.
   
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  [Article] Positive Tenor of Social Mood Expression

  At the 2009 bottom, economists were a bundle of nerves. Now, after a two-year rebound in social mood, they’re extremely confident. What might this change signify?
   
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  [Article] Forecasting: Predicting Tomorrow Based on Today

  “The economy is on the mend,” say experts, but their only rationale is that it was on the mend last year. What’s the flaw in this thinking?
   
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  [Article] Prechter, Casti Agree: Current Extreme in Fractal Pattern Indicates Approaching Downturn for Economy

  Originally published in the Dec. 2010 Socionomist In an interview last month on the Gabriel Wisdom Radio Show, Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, and John Casti, author of the well-received socionomics primer Mood Matters, said the wave of respite that began in March 2009 for financial instruments and […]
   
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  [Article] Bear Markets Rekindle Ancient Animosities

  If social mood has begun a decline of Grand Supercycle degree, it is no surprise that the era of historic apologies is yielding to a new era of historic retribution. The conflict between al Qaeda and the West expresses this tendency very dramatically.
   
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  [Article] Economists Perpetuate Trade Myths, Ignore Truths

  For years economists and investors have been pining for and positing a single reliable, mechanical mover of stock prices. For a time it was the weekly money supply; then, the bond market; and after that, the near-term trend of the U.S. dollar. The price of oil had its time in the sun, too. Each of these indicators had a logical explanation that made it attractive. The problem was, however, that none of them were supported historically—as a quick study of the price record over time would have confirmed.
   
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  [Article] Economy: ‘Decoupling’ is Back

  Investors are again pinning their hopes on “decoupling,” the idea that the world economy is immune to the United States’ financial troubles.
   
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  [Article] Can You Predict an Asset Bubble? Shout This from the Rooftops: Socionomists Can

  Most people—including Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and the lion’s share of economists—think that it is impossible to predict asset bubbles.
   
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  [Article] Socionomics in a Snap

  Read an in-depth interview with Robert R. Prechter, Jr., founder of the Socionomics Institute. “I always feel that it’s taking too long for people to discover socionomics. But when I review the latest developments, I realize that progress is coming along nicely.”
   
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  [Article] The Fallacies of Trend Extrapolation and Reliance Upon Exogenous Causality

  Socionomics states that the stock market is not like physics. This essay reasserts the common problems economists and futurists experience in forecasting social and macroeconomic trends and the role of optimism in the economy.