Social Mood Conference | Socionomics Foundation

Who Will Win in November? Ask the Stock Market

The stock market is a more powerful presidential reelection indicator than GDP, inflation and the unemployment rate combined. That was the key finding of a 2012 paper by our team at the Socionomics Institute. The stock market also was more accurate than the polls in anticipating a “toss-up” election in 2020.

The chart below shows what history suggested about the odds in the 2020 race for the White House. To get the full story, download our 2012 paper for yourself — FREE — from the Social Science Research Network (


Download the Institute’s full study on