Did Good News Sink the Stock Market?
Watch as Jordan Kotick and Matt Lampert bust stock market myths.
Watch as Jordan Kotick and Matt Lampert bust stock market myths.
If you think they do, you would think that Hurricane Sandy, which forced the longest weather related closure of stock markets since 1888, would cause movement in the markets.
Learn what drug runners’ wanting to be paid in gold bars can tell you about trend extrapolation.
“The economy is on the mend,” say experts, but their only rationale is that it was on the mend last year. What’s the flaw in this thinking?
For years economists and investors have been pining for and positing a single reliable, mechanical mover of stock prices. For a time it was the weekly money supply; then, the bond market; and after that, the near-term trend of the U.S. dollar. The price of oil had its time in the sun, too. Each of these indicators had a logical explanation that made it attractive. The problem was, however, that none of them were supported historically—as a quick study of the price record over time would have confirmed.
“Financial markets do not operate in the same way as those for other goods and services. When the price of a television set or software package goes up, demand for it generally falls. When the price of a financial asset rises, demand generally increases.”
—The Economist, August 12, 2010
Most people—including Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and the lion’s share of economists—think that it is impossible to predict asset bubbles.
Socionomics states that the stock market is not like physics. This essay reasserts the common problems economists and futurists experience in forecasting social and macroeconomic trends and the role of optimism in the economy.
Another Example of Rationalization, Ripped from the Headlines.
So in the face of abundant evidence to the contrary, why does the media (and much of Wall Street) still embrace the myth that news moves markets?