Post Tagged with: "Economy"

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  [Article] Positive Tenor of Social Mood Expression

  At the 2009 bottom, economists were a bundle of nerves. Now, after a two-year rebound in social mood, they’re extremely confident. What might this change signify?
   
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  [Article] Post-Crash Reality: From Houses as Assets to Houses as Utilitarian Goods

  Much has changed in America’s housing recently. Yet the most dramatic shift may be the market’s move away from the realm of speculative investment, and back to a place to call home. It’s likely that you (or someone you know) understand this from first-hand experience. No surprise there; EWI has been predicting the shift for over a decade. Now, friend of the Institute Peter Atwater takes a fresh look at these connections. One of the most practical reasons to look at any market through the eyes of its participants is to envision the surprising possibilities for the future.
   
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  [Article] Forecasting: Predicting Tomorrow Based on Today

  “The economy is on the mend,” say experts, but their only rationale is that it was on the mend last year. What’s the flaw in this thinking?
   
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  [Article] Prechter, Casti Agree: Current Extreme in Fractal Pattern Indicates Approaching Downturn for Economy

  Originally published in the Dec. 2010 Socionomist In an interview last month on the Gabriel Wisdom Radio Show, Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, and John Casti, author of the well-received socionomics primer Mood Matters, said the wave of respite that began in March 2009 for financial instruments and […]
   
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  [Article] Economists Perpetuate Trade Myths, Ignore Truths

  For years economists and investors have been pining for and positing a single reliable, mechanical mover of stock prices. For a time it was the weekly money supply; then, the bond market; and after that, the near-term trend of the U.S. dollar. The price of oil had its time in the sun, too. Each of these indicators had a logical explanation that made it attractive. The problem was, however, that none of them were supported historically—as a quick study of the price record over time would have confirmed.
   
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  [Article] Economy: ‘Decoupling’ is Back

  Investors are again pinning their hopes on “decoupling,” the idea that the world economy is immune to the United States’ financial troubles.
   
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  [Article] The Mainstream Reports On the Financial/Economic Dichotomy

  “Financial markets do not operate in the same way as those for other goods and services. When the price of a television set or software package goes up, demand for it generally falls. When the price of a financial asset rises, demand generally increases.”
  —The Economist, August 12, 2010
   
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  [Article] Social Mood Shapes Aggregate Opinion Regardless of Data

  One way to identify the effects of inflation and deflation is to observe significant changes in the money supply and in producer and consumer prices. One would think that as such measures rise, experts would be concerned about increasing inflation, and as those measures fall, they might begin to fear deflation. Is that what actually happens?
   
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  [Article] Sociometrics: Applying Socionomic Causality to Social Forecasting

  The underlying idea of causality that the Standard Social Science Model simplistically borrows from physics that external social actions cause reactive changes in social mood is inappropriate for understanding the genesis of financial market action.
   
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  [Article] Predicting Economic and Monetary Trends

  How does one apply socionomic techniques to economic forecasting? A socionomist knows that the stock market is a meter of social mood, which is the engine of social progress and regress. Therefore, the current-time change in the stock market is an immensely useful indicator of upcoming economic change.