Why the real superspreader is negative social mood
So far, 2025 has experienced a disturbing surge in outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases, including:
- “The largest single outbreak of measles since the disease was declared eliminated in 2000.” (New York Times, April 22).
- “The worst flu season in 15 years with estimates of at least 29 million cases, the most since the 2009-2010 flu season” (American Medical Association, Feb. 19).
- “The largest whooping cough outbreak in Oklahoma in 69 years” (KFOR, March 3).
In early 2019, amidst the first wave of measles re-emergence, our May 2019 Socionomist made a prescient case for a forthcoming surge in disease occurrences. The reason why was a perfect storm of positive social mood fostering complacency around viral risks, and negative social mood eroding people’s trust in vaccines. From the May 2019 Socionomist:
Figure 1 plots more than two centuries of data for the DJIA and the FTSE All-Share indexes and a timeline of the anti-vaccination movement. The events illustrated in Figure 1 are among those listed on the College of Physicians of Philadelphia’s “History of Anti-vaccination Movements” web page. Most of the events that reflect vaccine fear occurred during or soon after bear markets.
As you can see on the FTSE graph, “opposition to vaccination has existed as long as vaccination itself.” The English physician Edward Jenner pioneered the first smallpox vaccine in 1796 and is said to have saved more lives through his work than any other human in history. Yet, Jenner’s smallpox treatise was widely ridiculed… In 1802, a satirical cartoon showed vaccinated people sprouting cow heads. [Because the vaccine used bovine lymph].
The anti-vaccination movement involves only a small percentage of people, but a few unvaccinated people are all that measles, perhaps the most infectious disease there is, needs to spread. The same is true of other diseases.
When the viral load of social mood is high enough, it will spread into every area of the collective human experience, from diseases to democracy, pop culture, politics, fashion, music and on. For For a limited time, you can read the full 10-page (with citations) cover story from our May 2019 Socionomist with a single purchase.
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