The Covid Pandemic: Black Swan or Neon Swan? That Depends….

When the Covid-19 pandemic erupted in March 2020, we heard almost exclusively, from our government and many experts, that the outbreak was a black swan event; meaning, it was entirely random.

  • On March 6, they said, “The crisis is an unforeseen problem.”
  • On March 11, they said, “We’re having to fix a problem that, four weeks ago, nobody ever thought would be a problem.”
  • On March 14, they said, “It’s something that nobody expected.”

But from a socionomic perspective, the probability of a deadly disease event was knowable through the lens of social mood. Chapter 4 of our FREE “Must-Read Highlights from the Socionomist” begins:

Epidemics: Spanish Flu to Covid 19

Our socionomic and Elliott wave analysis suggest that social mood has completed an upward wave of monumental size and shifted to the negative at Grand Supercycle degree—which is one degree larger than the change in mood that created the Great Depression. This shift is driving rapid changes for the worse in financial markets, economies, personal fortunes and the quality of life. The scale of this mood shift means that the bulk of the largest bear market since 1720 still lies ahead, increasing our risk of an encounter with one of the grim reapers of major social mood decline, epidemic disease.

Social stress is rising as we approach another of these dangerous junctures, far bigger than the previous three. It should bring one or more epidemics and could culminate in a pandemic.

May 2009 Socionomist

Unlike black swans which come out of nowhere, the internet offers another feathered metaphor: “neon swans,” rare but highly predictable events of serious consequences. Examining the world through the lens of socionomics helps you anticipate the latter, and thus, avoid the financial and physical swan… dives others never saw coming.

You can read the full Epidemics: Spanish Flu to Covid 19 chapter inside our “Must-Read Highlights Issue on Social Mood” for free. Simply visit the EWI homepage, click the button beside the Social Mood Highlights Issue and enter your email address.

We’ll send a link directly to your inbox.

You’ll also see the following full chapters inside the Highlights Issue:

  • Russia: From Bull Market to Global Bully
  • Polarization Inc.: The Disunited States of America
  • Pro-Pot Movement
  • Authoritarianism Across the Globe

Read our brand-new FREE report “Must-Read Highlights Issue on Social Mood” now.

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Not to mention an exceptional essay on the power of social mood to help anticipate Presidential election outcomes, the rise of “bunker” mentality, and the growing anti-immigration political movement in Europe.

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